On January 20, 2022, the Asian Institute at the Munk School of Global Affairs, Belt and Road in Global Perspective Project, and the York Centre for Asian Research hosted a panel discussion on the book Rivers of Iron: Railroads and Chinese Power in Southeast Asia. The event’s featured speakers were the three co-authors of the book: Professor Emeritus David M. Lampton from Johns Hopkins University, Assistant Professor Selina Ho from the National University of Singapore, and Associate Professor Cheng-Chwee Kuik from the National University of Malaysia. The panel discussion was moderated by Associate Professor Gregory T. Chin from the Department of Politics at York University. The book focuses on China’s bold project to create a railroad system that would connect the country to seven of its Southeast Asian neighbours: Cambodia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam. It utilizes extensive research and the expertise of the authors to analyze the political, geopolitical, and economic implications of this infrastructure project. Throughout the discussion, each author was given the opportunity to share their experiences and knowledge on the topic, offering the audience a more nuanced understanding of the impressive plan to create an intercountry railroad that expands across Southeast Asia.
The first speaker was David M. Lampton, who provided an extensive description of the vision for the pan-Asia railway. Lampton explains that the railroad plans to link southwest China to Singapore through three north-south parallel lines. The three lines will converge in Bangkok, a city that will play a central role in the railway system. Lampton also notes that each of these three lines will be longer than the American transcontinental railroad – a railroad that had extensive impacts on economic growth for the United States – suggesting that the pan-Asia railway has the potential to be transformative. Currently, only one railway is open that connects the regions, and it is projected that the project will reach Kuala Lumpur or Singapore around 2030.
Lampton argues the impacts of the railway will be transformative but emphasizes the importance of asking several critical questions about its execution. Can China do it? How will China persuade these countries to be a part of this infrastructure project? How will different Southeast Asian countries respond to this project? Which Southeast Asian countries will have more agency than others? What is the role of infrastructure in economic development? Finally, what does the project mean for the distribution of future power? Throughout the book, Lampton and co-authors Selina Ho and Cheng-Chwee Kuik continue to address these critical questions.
The next speaker was Selina Ho, who challenged the commonly held notion in international relations theory that small states have no agency. Ho argued that this notion was falsified throughout their research. Southeast Asian countries were critical in the decision-making process when it came to negotiating and building the pan-Asia railroad. According to Ho, there were three conditions that determined the extent of bargaining power for these smaller states. The first condition was the importance of location, wealth, and size. For location, countries such as Thailand where all three routes of the pan-Asia railroad must pass through have more bargaining power. In terms of wealth, states like Malaysia and Singapore are middle-income countries that can wield more power. However, a small state like Laos, which does not exhibit any of these three characteristics, has limited bargaining power. The second condition that enabled these smaller Southeast Asian states to exhibit agency was state capacity. Singapore is an example of a small state with state capacity. The third condition was domestic politics and public opinion. A smaller country has greater bargaining leverage with China when its win-set, that is, the support it has at home, is smaller.
Towards the end of her remarks, Ho touched on the logistical challenges of building the railroads in these Southeast Asian countries. Decentralization, bureaucratic resistance, and technical challenges can all impact China’s ability to implement the projects.
The last co-author to speak was Cheng-Chwee Kuik, who continued the discussion on the agency of small states by describing the response of Southeast Asian countries to China’s railroad building. Kuik shared a matrix diagram, revealing that a country’s acceptance of China’s railroad building depended largely on two factors: the degree of development-based legitimation and the degree of power pluralization. He used Laos, Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam to demonstrate how the culmination of these two factors influences the country’s openness to the intercountry railroad.
The first factor Kuik explained, was development-based legitimation, which describes how a government justifies the right to rule. He argued that Southeast Asian governments that derive their power more from performance legitimation tended to be more receptive to railroad construction and infrastructure building more broadly. This applies to Laos and Malaysia, as their governments’ heavy reliance on economic development caused them to be enthusiastic about railroad building. Conversely, governments whose power legitimation stemmed equally or more from identity mobilization and nationalism were less receptive to Chinese participation. Vietnam expressed hesitancy as they preferred economic opportunity to be in the hands of the Vietnamese people, while Thailand emphasized that they wanted to achieve economic development the “Thai way,” that is, Chinese participation but not domination.
The second factor Kuik discussed was the degree of power pluralization, which is the extent to which political power is distributed in the host country. In countries with intense inter-elite contestation as well as fragmented societies and interest groups, it is harder to get decisions and smooth implementation than in more centralized politics. In Laos, where power is more centralized, they remain enthusiastic about the opportunities of the Chinese railroad. Malaysia and Thailand responded more slowly and with less consistency.
The final remarks of the panel discussion were given by Gregory T. Chin, who was impressed by the extensive research and expertise that went into the creation of the book. He was inspired by the three scholars who challenged the traditional US-China narrative, as they argued that these small Southeast Asian states will play an important role in political, geopolitical, and economic initiatives. Chin noted that this book elevated a new perspective regarding classic issues, and strongly encouraged everyone to read the book when they had the chance.
Kristi Deki is a second-year undergraduate student pursuing a major in Ethics, Society, and Law and a double minor in Contemporary Asian Studies and Psychology. Her main research interests include international human rights laws, surveillance